Studies show that expanding Medicaid would result in more jobs, increase the state’s wealth, and more people than Gunn’s tax cuts proposal. This has been passed by the House and is currently pending in Senate. The Legislature is currently considering major tax legislation. Gunn’s House plan would eliminate the income tax which is responsible for approximately one-third the general fund revenue. It would also reduce the cost of car tags by half, lower the tax on groceries from 7 to 4 percent, and increase the sales tax on all other retail items from 7.5% to 8.5%. A more modest plan was proposed by the Senate that would reduce the income tax and grocery taxes and eliminate a $3-$5 fee on car tags. Gov. Tate Reeves proposed eliminating the income tax. The Senate and the House are not seriously considering Medicaid expansion. This would allow Mississippians to have health insurance. This projection includes coverage for those who are not able to afford health insurance but who are employed in Mississippi. A February analysis by Sondra Collins, a Senior Economist at the University Research Center and State Economist Corey Miller, examines Gunn’s House tax cuts plan. Although this analysis has not been made public, it has been sent to legislators. Two economists conducted a September 2021 analysis to assess the effect of expanding Medicaid in the state, as allowed by federal law. This analysis was paid for in large part with federal funds. These two analyses have dramatic economic consequences. The economic effects of both analyses are stark. In 2024, Medicaid expansion will increase the gross domestic product (the value of state goods and services), by $779.4million, compared with just $317.9million for the House tax cut. For 2027, which is the fifth year of Medicaid expansion in the state, the GDP growth would be $777million, but only $162.8 million for tax cuts. The state’s current GDP stands at nearly $100 billion. Gunn and other leaders cited the need to grow the state’s population as one reason for eliminating the income taxes. Expanding Medicaid would provide even more value. According to analysis, the tax cut would result in 3,748 Mississippians moving to Mississippi by 2024. Expanding Medicaid would create 7,757 additional residents that year. The state’s population will grow by 11,505 if it expands Medicaid. However, the House tax cut plan would only allow for a 2,132 increase in the state’s population. READ MORE: Mississippi’s state economist discredits politicians’ claim that Mississippi can afford Medicaid expansion. Perhaps the most shocking part of the analysis was the comparison between wages and jobs. The study predicted that Medicaid expansion would create 11,526 new jobs in 2024 with an increase of personal income of $684.6 millions. The tax cut plan, which would have created 4,457 additional jobs and an increase of personal income by $213.5 million, only generated 4,457 more jobs. The Medicaid expansion in 2027 would create another 11,081 new jobs, with an additional $812.4million in personal income. This compares to 1,815 new positions and an increase of personal income of $85.8million for the tax cut plan. The study found that the personal income increases (due to Medicaid expansion) are greater each year between 2022 and 2027, and range from $539 million to $812 millions. The largest increase in personal income is 0.7% in 2027, which represents 0.7% of Mississippi’s total personal income in 2019. However, the analysis showed that 60% of new jobs would be in the health care and social services fields. The study noted that this is only an estimate of the potential jobs. The study found that many healthcare jobs in Mississippi remain unfilled. To achieve the projection, it would be necessary to find new workers. The study concluded that an increase in Medicaid enrollments could theoretically attract more medical staff and facilities to the state, if these enrollees were viewed as a reliable source of revenue. READ MORE: Mississippi Republican Income Tax Bet The analysis of Medicaid expansion only covers five years and ends in 2027. In each of the five years, Medicaid expansion has more growth in terms wealth, jobs and people than cutting taxes. The tax plan is studied up to 2035. This would likely include the phase out of income tax. The analysis shows that the tax cut plan would lead to a decrease in population (albeit a modest loss) and a decrease in personal income and employment. The gross domestic product would also drop to $11.6 million by 2034. This figure would reach $11.6 million by 2035. Also, there would be a reduction of 939 jobs and $166.7million in personal income. There will also be a decrease in the number of people living in 2035. Study cites the loss as a result the lower state revenue due to the full enactment tax cuts. According to the Medicaid expansion study, the major economic driver for the substantial economic boost that Medicaid expansion would bring to the state is the large amount federal money. The study concluded that federal funds would more than cover the state’s cost of expanding Medicaid and growing Mississippi’s economy. The cost of Medicaid expansion is generally borne by the state at 10%. Mississippi is one 12 state that has not expanded Medicaid. Gunn and Reeves are the most prominent proponents of abolishing the income tax. They have been vocal opponents to Medicaid expansion. Lt. Gov. Lt. Gov. READ MORE: The Senate is set to approve its income tax cuts, and the House has not budged on its desire to eliminate it. Note: Alex Rozier from Mississippi Today created the chart below based on analyses by the state economist’s Office of Medicaid expansion as well as the Gunn tax reduction proposal.