The campaigns are relatively quiet but the races have the potential to make history. Cindy Hyde Smith, the former state agricultural commissioner who Gov. Phil Bryant was appointed to the U.S. Senate this Spring. This gives Cindy Hyde-Smith a chance of becoming the first Mississippi woman to send to Capitol Hill. Hyde-Smith has to overcome challenges from Chris McDaniel (a former cabinet Secretary and powerful senator Thad Cochran) first. If black voters feel energized, Espy could be able to compete for the conservative role between McDaniel, Hyde-Smith and McDaniel. A stronger than normal Democratic candidate in state Rep. David Baria could give the parties more motivation to rally their base. The key questions that will decide whether the November campaign will be the same ho-hum campaign to which Mississippi is accustomed, or whether it will be an unprecedented historic Election Day like the one in a generation, will be answered. State Sen. Chris McDaniel, who lost to Senator Thad Cochran in the runoff, exposed deep divisions within the Mississippi Republican Party. McDaniel was in some ways a sign of the anti-establishment movement that would be seen in the 2016 presidential election. He reached out to a group of Mississippi conservatives who felt they were being cheated by politicians. McDaniel’s campaign “ushered in an era of conservative grassroots politics” and “help cement an anti-establishment Wave that continues to bludgeon The Republican Establishment,” Erick Erickson, conservative pundit, wrote in a 2018 book called “Remember Mississippi” about McDaniel’s 2014 campaign. McDaniel rose to national prominence in 2014 after he won more votes than Cochran but did not win a majority. After a three-week long runoff, Cochran won despite allegations from McDaniel’s supporters that Democratic crossover voters had influenced the election. McDaniel refused to concede to Cochran, and spent months challenging the election results before the courts to no avail. McDaniel spent months building and maintaining his base of Mississippi voters, who said they were fed up with Washington’s power structures. This sentiment was also responsible for Donald Trump’s ascendancy to the White House in 2016. The state’s established Republican leaders are trying to neutralize McDaniel’s challenge, while not alienating his base. “Chris has an extraordinary talent as a politician. Lucien Smith, chairman, Mississippi Republican Party, said that Chris clearly has a message that resonates. We’ll watch what happens over the next few months.” Smith said, “One thing I remind people of – especially those in the various patriot organizations like the tea party — is that I believe they are an important force within Mississippi politics.” “I believe they’ve had a significant influence at the Capitol and I believe we agree on most matters. McDaniel will be running for the Senate seat he stated in late 2018 that he felt he won in 2014. He is up against Hyde Smith as well as Espy. McDaniel’s handling of the loss could have gotten him out of the good graces many Republicans who supported him in 2014. McDaniel was endorsed by several elected officials and other political outsiders in 2014. Wicker has been endorsed in 2018. McDaniel’s 2014 polarizing sentiments are still felt today, though it is difficult to quantify the extent and size of these feelings. McDaniel’s base has been vocal on Facebook since his loss in 2014. This is where the conservative candidate has communicated the most. McDaniel’s campaign page on Facebook has nearly 210,000 followers. His multiple-times-a day posts regularly earn thousands of interactions per post. Cindy Hyde Smith is in a difficult position. She sits between McDaniel’s ultra-conservative and moderate-liberal Espy. Tobey Bartee, a Gautier Democrat, will be facing the three. Hyde-Smith has praised her conservative values to date and teamed herself up with President Donald Trump in an effort to counter many of McDaniel’s attacks. Hyde-Smith tweeted July that she had tried to do the right thing for Mississippi as your senator. America faces difficult challenges like strengthening our military, securing our borders and reducing our debt. I’m working alongside @realDonaldTrump in order to be part of the solution!” Another July tweet from Hyde-Smith read, “It’s an exciting moment to be conservative!” “@realDonaldTrump has fulfilled his promise to nominate qualified constitutionalists for SCOTUS–and we stand with him 100%. I look forward supporting Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination!” “Chris McDaniel claims he is conservative. But, a review of BIPEC’s 2018 Report Card shows that he doesn’t have the courage or will to vote for his convictions. Sen. Hyde Smith is a leader who has worked with Presidents. “Trump,” reads a tweet that Hyde-Smith sent in June from his campaign Twitter account. Hyde-Smith has so far not done much to challenge Espy’s message that Espy should reach across the aisle and transcend party labels. Smith stated that the party could and would play this role when Hyde-Smith switches to Espy. The best thing for Republicans is to focus on why they want the office. They must make their own election decisions. McDaniel has been scathing about Hyde Smith’s record. Cindy Hyde Smith was a Democrat up until 2010. She isn’t conservative. He said that she was picked by the GOP establishment and was quoted in interviews and on social media. Hyde-Smith countered by partnering herself with Donald Trump and championing GOP legislative priorities while on the campaign trail. She raised more money than any other candidate in her race and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent over $1 million on television ads to support her candidacy. It remains to be seen how and when she will respond to Espy’s message. Espy has been quiet. He bought some digital ads and began making public appearances like last weekend at Jackson’s Black Rodeo. Strong support from Mississippi’s African American community will be crucial for Democrats to win the U.S. Senate election in November. This is something that Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) has enjoyed for 25 years. Thompson, who represents the predominantly black 2nd district in the U.S. House from 1993 to 1993, is the most prominent African American elected official in the state. He has sometimes been seen as having no stake in the success or failure of Mississippi Democrats. At other times, it seems that some other Democrats may not be interested in Thompson’s support – at least, not publicly. Thompson appears fully invested in the state’s two Senate election. He is seated at a conference desk in Bolton’s district office, in western Hinds County, far from the Capitol. Thompson, 70, said that there is a possibility of Democratic victories with two senatorial elections, a high base vote turnout of African Americans and other traditional voters who vote Democratic. You know that the stars must align. “We have two great candidates. They must put their best foot forward to make it happen.” Thompson has endorsed both Rep. David Baria, and Espy. It could be argued that Thompson’s endorsement played a significant role in Baria defeating Howard Sherman, who was much more financially secure, in the Democratic primary. Baria requested Thompson’s endorsement. Some Mississippi Democrats have not always supported Thompson’s liberalism. They were wary of Thompson’s racial-identity politics. However, he would argue that these are just attempts to level the playing fields. Thompson stated that he supported Baria because he knew him well and believed he was strong on issues important to Democrats. Thompson stated that he would advocate for national Democrats to fund Espy’s campaign and the Baria effort, even though this is considered a more unlikely candidate. Thompson was the previous 2nd District representative for Espy and was the first African American U.S. House Member in Mississippi since the Reconstruction period. Espy was removed from Mississippi’s political process in the mid 1990s. In winning the seat and keeping it, Thompson had to defeat Henry Espy (brother of Mike) and Chuck Espy (nephew). Thompson answered questions about his relationship to Espy by saying, “I am on the record supporting him.” Senator Roger Wicker is the first Republican candidate for a state office. He was the one who advocated changing the state flag which prominently features the Confederate battle emblem. In the Nov. 6 general elections, Wicker of Tupelo (the incumbent United States senator) will be challenged by David Baria, the Democratic leader of the state House of Minority Leaders. Baria is also known to support a change of the state flag. The state Legislature and governor will make the decision to change the flag and not the U.S. House or Senate. The flag issue will still be an important backdrop to the Baria–Wicker race and the special U.S. Senate elections – both held on Nov. 6, to replace Thad Cchran, who resigned in March. Cindy Hyde Smith, who was appointed in March by Gov. Phil Bryant was appointed to replace Cochran in interim. He is currently running for the seat. A spokesperson recently stated that Cindy Hyde-Smith believes that residents voted in favor the current state flag in 2001. The current flag has been supported by Ellisville State Senator Chris McDaniel, an anti-establishment Republican who is running in the special elections. In a campaign against Wicker, he was expected to make the flag a bigger issue. McDaniel decided to run in the special elections after Cochran retired. Hyde-Smith is also opposed to changing the flag. Democrat Mike Espy is also running in the special election. He was a former member of the U.S. House and was the secretary of agriculture under the Clinton administration. He said that the Mississippi flag did not reflect the views of the majority of Mississippians, who are willing to work together in common cause. The flag is divisive and outdated. It evokes negative memories of a past era. Our flag should represent the idea of all Mississippians coming together to face the 21st century challenges. However, it does the exact opposite. We now have two Mississippi museums – both modern, sleek and purposeful. It is time to take down the current state flag and put it on display in the museum Mississippi History.” Wicker was the first person to call for the replacement of the controversial flag. This was shortly after the shooting of an African American church in Charleston by a man who used white supremacist symbols on photos online, including the Confederate battle banner. The church shooting resulted in nine deaths. Wicker said that the removal of the flag was a sign of his Christian faith. “In I Corinthians 8, Paul stated that he did not have any objection to eating meat sacrificed for idols. He said that eating meat sacrificed to idols was not a problem for him. Wicker stated in a June 2015 statement that the flag should be taken down because it creates dissension rather than unity. This is a matter that must be resolved by the legislature and other state officials, and not Washington. “If I can be part in a process to reach consensus within our state,” Wicker stated again in 2017 that the flag should go to a museum, and not be used as the official state banner. Marty Wiseman is a Mississippi State political science professor and the former executive director of Stennis Institute of Government. He said that the flag could become a problem in November’s election. It’s not clear which direction it will splash. However, if the issue is brought up, it will certainly be discussed.” Studies have shown that the turnout among the African American community in 2001’s election to change the state flag was low. This means that the flag issue could result in a higher turnout among white voters opposed to changing the flag than among African Americans or other supporters of changing the banner. Wiseman stated that the flag could generate black voter turnout in November. Obama’s 2008 and 2012 elections were “some of the best black voter turnout” in recent years. It is hard to imagine if Espy could duplicate that. With two Senate seats at stake, Mississippi voters feel more motivated and self-assured about their ability to choose their leaders, according to Arekia Bennett, Mississippi Votes executive director. Mississippi Votes, a non-profit organization dedicated to increasing civic engagement in Mississippi, is a nonprofit organization. Effective change can be achieved quickly when people are empowered. Bennett stated that this is grassroots organizing at its most basic and pure form. Bennett said that grassroots organizing is at its core and purest form. Nearly 86,000 Democratic voters turned out for the June 5 Senate primary to choose a candidate. This was on par with the 85.866 who voted in 2014’s Democratic primary election. Travis Childers, a former congressman, received 74 percent of that vote. A runoff was therefore not necessary. In the general election, he lost to Senator Thad Cochran. Both the congressional and senator run-off candidates spent a lot of time in the state during the weeks leading to the June 26 runoff. They visited different restaurants and communities and campaigned at various events. Volunteers donned T-shirts representing their candidate and canvassed the neighborhoods to encourage residents to vote. Mississippi has a higher level of voter participation than other states. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Mississippi ranked first in 2016 in terms of registered voters with 75.5 percent of its citizens registered. The national average is 5.5 points lower than Mississippi’s 2016 voting rate of 66.8 per cent. Civil liberties groups in Mississippi are closely monitoring efforts to hinder participation of certain groups, despite the fact that Mississippians heavily vote in federal elections. Two lawsuits have been filed against state election officials since September 2017 over Mississippi’s ban on certain felonies from voting. Mississippi Today reported earlier this year that Mississippi’s disqualification lawsdisproportionately affect black felons. Sixty-one percent of the Mississippians who have lost their right to vote because they were convicted of a felony since 1994 are black. Three African American men from the Delta have filed a federal suit accusing the state in federal court of gerrymandering one Senate district in v
Iolation of the Voting Right Act of 1965, which prohibited discrimination when voting. This law required Mississippi and other states with a history of African American voter suppression, to get approval from the federal government in order to amend voting laws. The U.S. Supreme Court overturned that section of the law in 2013. Charles Taylor, an organizer who has a background in voter engagement, stated that democracy must have participation. Taylor stated that there is a strong correlation between access to voting and ease in voting. He has seen precincts or counties without voting rights when the polls open at 6:00 AM. He said that there have been intimidation tactics in Mississippi, and because there is no protection under section 5 of the Voting rights Act, I am always apprehensive about what elections could look like. Recent Mississippi experiences show how important voter registration and turnout are. In the 2014 Republican primary, Thomas Carey, an unnamed candidate, received nearly 5,000 votes, which was 1.5 percent of the total. This forced McDaniel to enter a runoff with Cochran. She said that while radio and television ads can reach a wider audience, it’s still important to have a face-to-face discussion about issues. Bennett stated, “Having those conversations and being capable of articulating what’s really at stake has been an and remains the most powerful tool I have.” Editor’s Note: A previous version of this story, as well as several others on our website, incorrectly identified Tobey Bartee, U.S. Senate candidate for Gautier City Councilman. According to his campaign website he was most recently an Intelligence Analyst for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Every story where Bartee’s identity is incorrectly identified has been corrected. We are sorry for the mistakes. To support this important work, please make a regular donation to the Spring Member Drive today. Our reporters give a human face to policy’s impact on everyday Mississippians by listening more closely and understanding their communities. To ensure that our work is aligned with the priorities and needs of all Mississippians, we are listening to you. Click the button below to let us know what you think.