These election eve rallies in Tupelo, Biloxi, and other critical GOP strongholds, helped Hyde-Smith win by 7.5 points over Espy. Espy was a former congressman and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. The president has only sent one supportive tweet to Hyde-Smith two years later as she faces Espy again in a Senate election for the full 6-year term. Hyde-Smith will not win Tuesday night because she was given support by the president or other Republicans. It won’t happen because of her methodical campaign or because she spoke out for Mississippians suffering from the same problems. Because a majority Mississippians are Republican in the most-polarized election, she would win. Hyde-Smith’s 2020 campaign strategy was one of hope. She hopes that Trump’s popularity and red-meat Republican talking point will lead her to victory. On the campaign trail she avoided asking tough questions and spoke very little about important issues facing Mississippians. She declined to debate her opponent and received very little financial support. The final question of this election, posed by Hyde Smith and GOP leaders, was: Can a Republican from a reliably red state win an election without doing much campaigning? Even against a formidable Democratic challenger. The financial reports for the 2018 and 2020 elections best show how little Hyde Smith has done on the campaign trail this election. Hyde-Smith’s campaign spent $3.4million three weeks after the 2018 runoff. Hyde Smith’s campaign spent $2.6 million in three weeks before the 2020 general elections. This is a 24% decrease. Espy’s campaign spent $2.2 million three weeks after the 2018 runoff. Espy’s campaign spent $6.4million in three weeks before the 2020 general elections. This is a 190% increase. Gov. Phil Bryant, a historically popular Republican, who appointed Hyde Smith to the Senate, fought hard for her in 2018 as well as helping raise money through the Mississippi Republican Party apparatus. Governor. Tate Reeves was significantly less popular than Bryant and did almost no fundraising or campaigning for Hyde Smith. Privately, several Republican operatives questioned the timing of Reeves’ hosting of a $10,000-per photo fundraiser for the state Republican Party eight days before Election Day. This was in spite Hyde-Smith’s difficulty raising cash. Hyde Smith received millions of dollars in support from super-PACs and independent groups two years ago. This money was used to keep Hyde Smith and Republicans in the U.S. Senate. Hyde-Smith doesn’t have any of this outside support. “I just realized there was no reason to set up a Super PAC, you know. “She should be fine,” Henry Barbour (the national Republican strategist who helped millions of people to vote for Hyde-Smith last week) told Mississippi Today. Hyde-Smith benefited from the 2018 Republican Party Chairman Lucien Smith’s “largest data-driven, get out-the-vote effort” in Mississippi. At least 15 full-time staffers made calls and knocked on doors across the state to support the senator. National Republican groups nearly doubled the number of canvassers during the three week runoff. Justin Brasell, Hyde Smith’s campaign manager, stated earlier this year that Hyde Smith’s campaign set a goal to hire “six or seven” full time field staffers. Hyde-Smith’s Democratic opponent Espy ran one of the most robust and expensive campaigns in state history. Espy raised just shy of $10million and spent $7 million more than Hyde Smith this year. This total surpasses all previous records in Mississippi for Democrats. It is also almost twice the amount that Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood raised in his bid to become governor in 2019. In an effort to close the partisan gap that has plagued modern Democrats since 2000, his campaign staff deliberately dropped cash to target voters in certain parts of the state. Republican operatives were right about the largest field game ever for Hyde Smith in 2018, but Mississippi Democrats led by strategist Jared Turner easily won it in 2020. They built the largest data-driven, get out-the-vote effort of its kind in state history, for either side. For the last month of the race, the Democratic Party coordinated its campaign on Espy’s behalf and placed paid canvassers into 52 of the state’s 82 counties. They have knocked on doors, phone banked, and broadcast television, radio, and online ads for weeks. This campaign has been dominated by race during a national reckoning about racism in politics. Espy is a Black man who has broken down racial barriers in politics and faces a white incumbent, who continues to make unfounded comments about race. Espy made race the central theme of his campaign this year, as millions protested racial inequalities and Trump continued to mobilize Black voters. Democratic operatives predict that more Black Mississippians will vote for the Democrats in 2020 than ever before, even when President Barack Obama was still on the ballot. Espy believes he requires the support of 22% white Mississippi voters. Therefore, he targeted suburban white women during the last stretch. His campaign ended with him spending a lot of time speaking to young voters. Young voters, which tend to be more Democratic than others, voted in record numbers across the country. Espy must win with record turnout and support from a broad coalition to do so. Democrats claim that, regardless of the outcome, Espy’s 2020 candidacy helped them create an infrastructure for future elections and showed that the state is moving towards center. They believe that even a smaller loss to Espy than in 2018 will help them make a stronger case to national Democrats about continued investments in the state. Many Republican strategists believe that Mississippi voters are too conservative to elect a Democrat in 2020. However, some think Hyde-Smith’s 2020 strategy has caused long-term damage. Mississippi Today spoke to a veteran Mississippi Republican operative under the condition that anonymity was maintained. He said, “Campaigns matter, but margins also matter.” These things have consequences. Cindy Hyde Smith may be elected. However, it is very likely that she will get elected with the lowest percentage of any Republican Senate candidate in state history. In Washington, she’ll be seen weak and vulnerable. She’ll be seen as weak and vulnerable in Washington if she doesn’t care about the race.