According to the FiveThirtyEight blog, Mississippi is the least democratic state in the country when it comes to voting. The hospitality state is the least persuadable state in the country, with fewer voters per capita than any other state. Based on an updated study, Washington, D.C., the nation’s capital, is the only state with fewer persuadable votes. This shows the difficulties faced by Democrats in Mississippi, and Mike Espy in particular his race against Republican incumbent U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde Smith. Espy seems to have all the momentum. He has raised more money than Hyde Smith this year, and is the most popular on the state’s television airwaves. The Cook Political Report, which is a national website that predicts elections, places the Mississippi Senate race under the “solid Republican” category. Hyde-Smith has a 91% chance to win, according to FiveThirtyEight. National forecasters give Democratic Senate candidates from Kansas, Montana, and Alaska greater odds of winning than they give Espy. What’s the deal? These states are more Democratic than Mississippi. Trump won Mississippi 18% in the 2016 presidential election. This compares to Montana, Kansas, and Alaska, which were more than 20% and almost 15% respectively. FiveThirtyEight says the issue isn’t that Mississippi is more Republican that other states, but that Mississippi has fewer people willing to vote across party lines. Blog says that elastic voters are more susceptible to being influenced by political events, such as the economy, scandals, or pandemics. The most alarming trend is the inelasticity of the country as a whole. The most disturbing trend is the country’s inelasticity as a whole. The vast majority of these unpersuadable Democrats are Black voters. FiveThirtyEight believes that the Southern Democratic Senate candidates have a better chance than the Democrats in Kansas and Montana. However, FiveThirtyEight says the large number of Black voters in these Southern states gives Democrats an edge in an election cycle in which all the momentum seems to be on the Democrats’ side. Espy must remember that Mississippi has more persuadable Republicans then Democrats. Espy must attract people who don’t normally vote to win in November. Many believe that these progressives are not enthused by the conservative Democrats running for state office in Mississippi. Espy’s 2020 campaign has been largely focused on race and social injustice. He has attempted to attract these voters by supporting the national Democratic ticket in a way that is different from other Mississippi Democratic statewide candidates. Espy will also need to convince a few of these Mississippi Republican voters to switch to his camp. Recent ads by Espy emphasize the need to change Mississippi’s trajectory in order to prevent young people from leaving the state. They also highlight his willingness to work across political lines as he did with Republicans such as Sen. ThadCochran and President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, 1990s, and 1990s. Espy must accomplish both these things to win: inspire new, mostly younger progressives, and convince some traditionally unpersuadable Republicans. Espy believes he will win if Black voters vote in Nov. 3. He also claims that he will win, if his white vote increases from the 18% that he received in his 2018 Senate special elections against Hyde Smith to 22%. Early absentee voting data suggests that there is a high likelihood that the African American vote will exceed the 32.5% Espy campaign claims he received in the 2018 special elections. Espy may need to convince the unpersuadable Mississippi voters that this is true. This is a difficult task but it will be possible._x000D
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