/As officials relax safety measures, Mississippi reports highest weekly average for coronavirus cases

As officials relax safety measures, Mississippi reports highest weekly average for coronavirus cases

This week saw the state health department record 1,956 new cases, which is the highest number of cases in Mississippi for a week. The number of daily new cases has remained stable throughout the week. In contrast to previous weeks, there was more variation in new cases numbers each day. This week’s first week has only reported 136 cases, Monday’s being the lone exception. These startling weekly statistics were released days after Gov. Tate Reeves had announced that additional safety restrictions would be removed. Reeves kept the “safer at home” recommendation, which suggests that Mississippians avoid social contact and stay away from public places. However, his previous orders to close many businesses in the state have been mostly retracted. The only remaining businesses closed by executive order as of Monday are indoor entertainment venues like theaters and museums. Due to weekends reporting lags from laboratories, Sundays and Mondays have traditionally seen lower case counts. Even with these lags, this week’s cases have remained high at 279 daily, which is the highest weekly average since the pandemic. The health department had estimated that 69 percent of cases had been recovered at the last count. This means that approximately 3,500 people are still considered to be contagious. Officials stated that the state was likely to be in a new case plateau more than a month ago. However, they cautioned that there was no way of knowing for certain. Both Gov. Tate Reeves, and Thomas Dobbs, the State Health Officer, said that the state had “flattened” the curve. This means that it has prevented cases from increasing so as not to overburden the health system. Although hospitalizations have increased over the past week, they have remained stable. The number of cases is not the same as hospitalizations. If cases don’t plateau and spread more, this could cause those trends to reverse. The average daily testing has increased to 5,300 per day over the past four days. This could be a factor in the increase in cases. Mississippi now reports COVID-19 diagnostic tests in addition to its previously reported antibody tests. These tests look for past infections. The state’s COVID test results are increasing in proportion to the antibody tests — currently at 6 percent, an increase of 3 percent from mid-week. The artificial boost from the inclusion of antibody tests has led to a decline in the total number of COVID tests, which have been separated by a few states. Thursday’s Sun Herald report said that state health departments have been creating antibody tests and diagnostic tests ever since the introduction of antibody testing. This has confused public health experts, who are questioning both the logic and the effect of this unusual method decision. The same has been confirmed by at least seven other states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dobbs stated Thursday that it did indicate infection. However, it was just past infection. “So it does give us historical perspectives about the total cases, so there is value in it,” Dobbs said in a press conference. We could also separate them. It’s not that big of a deal. It’s not an inflation of numbers, I think. It’s just another way of diagnosing an infection. Dobbs said in the past that although antibody testing can be helpful in understanding the spread of the disease, there are still unknowns about its medical utility and should be distinguished from diagnostic testing. Both tests provide different information about COVID infection. A viral test, which is performed using a DNA nose swipe, diagnoses a current infection. Serology tests (a blood draw) show that antibodies are present in the body to fight off infection, which could indicate a previous infection. Although antibody tests have gained popularity quickly in the month that they were made available, experts warn against reading too much into them as it is not clear what past infections mean for immunity. They can also help to determine the true prevalence of the disease. The Food and Drug Administration regulates these tests and has recently raised standards that were previously unmet. Quest Diagnostics, which has conducted 975,000 national antibody tests as of Monday, offers the test directly-to-consumers and bypasses state health systems. On Sunday, Mississippi had reported *9,057 antibodies tests. Two problems arise from lumping the two counts together. It could lead to an increase in testing numbers, as in Georgia’s case. Second, the confirmed cases that have been identified by antibody tests may not be added to the total. Mississippi claims they include antibody-identified cases into the total case count. Therefore, the artificial increase in testing should be countered with the addition of cases found. Dobbs stated that antibody tests have revealed a 2 percent rate of positives, but the health department has not updated its antibody case-identification rate. If the 2 percent figure remains accurate, 181 cases have been identified in the state over the last month. This accounts for 1 percent of more than 13,000 cases confirmed in the state, and 2 percent each of the new cases. However, adding those cases creates a problem: those 181 cases reflect past infections and do not help in identifying active cases. Diagnostic and antibody tests measure completely different things so they don’t provide the same information to scientists or the public. It can be misleading at worst. At best, it helps to identify overall disease prevalence. However, it does not aid in case-tracing or stop active spread of infection by isolating specific cases. After slowing in previous weeks, diagnostic testing has increased despite the addition of antibody tests. This week’s average 730 daily tests saw the state’s laboratory report its highest single-day test results. According to Mississippi Today’s analysis from the COVID Tracking Project national data, Mississippi has maintained a high test rate compared to other states. As of Friday, Mississippi ranked 18th in the U.S. In mid-May, the state announced universal testing of long-term care facilities. This partially accounts for both testing increases and increased cases. Long-term care cases increased by only 204 cases or 14 percent over the week, which is less than the 25 percent increase the week before. *Editor’s note: As of May 25, the Mississippi Department of Health has changed its methodology reporting 6,781 antibodies tests.