Even though African Americans make up less that 27 percent of the population, they accounted for 29 percent of Alabama’s electorate in the December special election. As they attempt to elect two U.S. Senators, Democrats in Mississippi would be pleased with a similar performance. Only problem with the Espy campaign’s statistical path to victory is that Barack Obama received support from only 10% of Mississippi voters in 2012. This is the lowest percentage of the nation according to exit polling. Espy, who was elected to the U.S. House in 1986 as Mississippi’s first black member since 1880s, could have trouble getting close to that threshold. This year, he is running in the Senate special elections to replace Thad Cchran, who was forced to retire in March due to poor health. Governor Rick Snyder appointed Cindy Hyde Smith, a Republican former Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce. Phil Bryant was appointed to fill the interim seat and is running for the special election. The special election also features Republican state Senator Chris McDaniel from Ellisville, who narrowly lost in 2014 to Tobey Bartee in Gautier. The Nov. 6 special election will determine which candidate receives the majority vote. If that happens, the top two vote-getters in the runoff will be the ones who get the most votes. According to the nationally recognized Cook Political Report, the special election is in the “likely” Republican category. The “solid” Republican rating is given to Mississippi’s regular-scheduled Senate race in which state Rep. David Baria (D-Bay St. Louis) is challenging Republican incumbent Roger Wicker, of Tupelo. The Mississippi contests are not mentioned by national political pundits, nor the special election, as possible picks for Democrats in their fight to regain the Senate. However, Espy, who was Secretary of Agriculture under the Clinton administration, uses favorable polling data to convince Democratic donors that his candidacy is viable. In a head to head matchup, some polls show Espy winning over Hyde-Smith. Some polls have shown the exact opposite. However, polls have shown that Espy would fare better against McDaniel, a Tea Party favorite, than against Hyde Smith. Espy and Hyde Smith are considered the most likely to reach a runoff. One argument could be made to suggest that Mississippi’s two Senate elections are more difficult than others. To be able to accurately poll a particular election, it is important to know the demographic makeup of that turnout. The poll could be skewed if the actual African American turnout is lower or higher than what the pollster believes. Conor Dowling, a University of Mississippi political scientist, stated that it’s possible for “a concerted effort by African Americans to mobilize voters” to have an effect on an election. When polling voters, good pollsters take these efforts into consideration. Dowling stated that while it is important for polls not to be inaccurate, this is becoming more difficult. “Pollsters try to account for attempts at driving up turnout by asking people to not only who they plan to vote for but also a combination of (1) how likely and (2) how excited they are about voting. The combination of those two items can allow pollsters to attempt to observe whether there appear to be any differences in enthusiasm/likelihood of voting between, say, people who indicate they intend to vote for Espy or Baria and Hyde-Smith or McDaniel or Wicker.” State Rep. Bryant Clark, D-Pickens, whose father was the first African American legislator in the modern era, believes the black turnout in November might be much higher than expected. Clark stated that he believes there will be an increase in turnout due to some of the issues surrounding President Trump and the disapproval of him within the African American community. Espy could also be the most viable African American candidate for statewide office. Based on his ability to reach out to white farmers in his Delta House District, Espy was considered a viable candidate for the state. Clark stated that he could only speak for his area – the Delta. Mike Espy is a well-known name in the region. “If he can inspire similar enthusiasm in other regions – such as the Gulf Coast or northeast Mississippi – it might help Democrats in both the special election and regular election,” Clark said. Austin Barbour, a Republican strategist who has worked on campaigns at both the state-level and at the national level, believes that not only African American turnout but overall turnout will rise this November. According to Barbour, the popularity of President Trump among Republican voters will increase turnout. Barbour stated that there is even the possibility of President Donald Trump holding rallies in Mississippi to support Hyde-Smith or Wicker. He also said Espy could be facing the disadvantage of a three-week runoff after the general election, when party control of Senate could be at stake. The Republican effort in Mississippi will be intensified if that happens. Barbour stated that “If Mike Espy wishes to win, he requires Republicans to be asleep.” “The turnout will not be the same as it was in 2014″ In 2014’s mid-term election, where Travis Childers, former U.S. Rep., defeated Travis Childers of Booneville with 631,858 votes. This is 653,726 fewer votes than in 2012, when Republican Mitt Romney beat Obama in Mississippi. Obama won 43.8 per cent or 582 949 votes in that election. This margin was greater than Mitt Romney’s 90 percent support among white Mississippians. 2016 saw Hillary Clinton win 485,131 votes, or 40.1 per cent of Mississippi voters against Trump. The performance of Obama and Clinton as Democrats does not bode well in the election for Espy or Baria, the Democrats running for the two Mississippi Senate elections. Clark predicts that the African American vote will be unusually high and closer to 2012 levels. Meanwhile, Republican voters in Trump-friendly Mississippi may not be as enthusiastic about him and instead vote at the mid-term election level. Clark stated that he believes the Republican turnout will be low …,”. “It doesn’t have to be a perfect storm. But if we have the right storm, Mississippi could surprise the rest of America in November.”