/Midterm results energize Democrats; Republicans note why 2019 elections will be different

Midterm results energize Democrats; Republicans note why 2019 elections will be different

Delbert Hosemann’s office released the certified results of the Nov. 6th election and Nov. 7 special elections. These were held to replace U.S. Senator Thad Cochran, who resigned in April due to health reasons. These certified results prove that the Democrat performed better than was reported on election night or in the days following the election. Final, certified numbers show that Espy received 46.4 percent of the vote in the special election on Nov. 27, which was the highest percentage of votes for any Democrat running in Mississippi for a national statewide office — president or senator — since 1982. Despite Espy’s positive showing, still no Democrat other than Hood, as in Attorney General Jim Hood, has been elected statewide to Mississippi since 2003. Hood, a Houston resident will try in 2019 to turn the success he had as an attorney general into a run for governor. Jay Hughes, a state representative from Oxford, said that he was encouraged and inspired by the results of the Senate special election. Hughes said, “We began digesting and analysing the data from Senate special election and runoff prior to the sun rising the next day and believe it is some of most powerful information that can be obtained.” Hughes stated that it tells us the story of Mississippians willing to vote for the person and not the party. Hughes also said that he is already campaigning daily and believes he can find the less than 4 per cent Espy received to win the statewide election for lieutenant governor. Austin Barbour is a Republican political consultant and commentator, who works in the state as well as on national campaigns. He said that he wouldn’t read too much into 2018 results because it relates to the upcoming 2019 elections. Barbour stated that the Democrats had a strong candidate for the U.S. Senate, which was their first since 2008 when Ronnie Musgrove was elected. The Republican candidate didn’t close strongly. But she won 8 points. Although Espy was considered a strong candidate for the job, there were some risks. First, Espy was the first African American to be elected to the U.S. House since 1992. In his final stint in public service, Espy was secretary of agriculture in the Clinton administration. Many Mississippians view the Clintons’ affiliation as a political liability. Espy was a formidable candidate. To explain, Espy was a formidable candidate for U.S. Senate or president. His best showing came in 1988 when Wayne Dowdy, Democratic U.S. Rep. from McComb, received 46.1 percent of vote and lost to Trent Lott, Republican U.S. Rep. of Pascagoula, in the election to replace John Stennis, a long-serving U.S. Senator. Stennis received 64.2 percent of vote in 1982 against Haley Barbour, a young Republican upstart. Gary Anderson, a Holly Springs resident, was the only African American to win a higher percentage of votes in any Mississippi statewide election. He received 46.6 percent in 2003 for the office as treasurer. Anderson, a Democrat, and the former state fiscal officer was defeated by Tate Reeves (a Republican). Anderson ran in 2011 for the position of insurance commissioner. He received 43.5 percent of votes and lost to Mike Chaney (R-Vicksburg). Espy was defeated by Cindy Hyde-Smith (representative of the Republican Party), who was appointed in April by Gov. Phil Bryant was appointed interim senator in April to succeed Cochran. In the Nov. 6 election, Hyde-Smith was on the ballot along with Espy and two other candidates — Republican state senator Chris McDaniel from Ellisville and Democrat Tobey Barrtee in Gautier. Hyde-Smith and Espy advanced to the second round – each with around 41 percent of votes. The two Republicans, Hyde-Smith, and McDaniel, received 544,873 votes, while the Democrats, Espy, and Bartee, garnered 400,594. Espy received more votes in the second round than he and Bartee did in the first election. This indicates that he made significant progress in the three weeks between then and the runoff. Hyde-Smith got fewer votes than McDaniel and she. Official, certified votes in this runoff were 486,769 for Hyde Smith and 420,819 to Espy. This totaled 907,588 votes. 37,879 more than the votes cast in the first election. This was 300,000 more votes than any Mississippi mid-term election. The Baria campaign believed that 350,000 votes would be enough to win the midterm election and achieve a major upset. Baria was able to get 369,567 votes but lost by 178.052 votes in the record turnout vote. The Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University conducted an analysis of the recent election. It found it difficult to compare election results with past elections, as the turnout was significantly higher than in typical mid-term elections and was still lower than that of most presidential elections which generally have a 25% turnout. According to the Stennis Institute, the best comparison is the 2003 gubernatorial race in which Republican Haley Barbour beat Democratic incumbent Ronnie Musgrove. The turnout in that election was almost the same as the one this year for the Senate runoff, and the percentage of votes received by the Republican and Democrat was also close to the identical. The institute noted that when the Espy/Hyde Smith election was compared to 2016, the Democrat Espy did better than Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s performance in the state’s most populous counties. According to the Stennis Institute study, “DeSoto, Hinds and Madison counties, which have the highest population in the State, were the main locations for this Democrat vote shift.” These results will only be confirmed by time. Hughes and the other Democrats on November’s ballot will have to wait to see if they are a positive sign.